The most competitive races — the ones to watch on election night — will be in Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, New Hampshire and North Carolina.

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Over the past month, this column has presented analysis of this year’s U.S. Senate races by region. Part One looked at contests in the West. Part Two examined races in the Midwest. Last week’s installment considered races in the South where Democrats are in trouble.

In this final installment, we’ll examine Southern races where Republicans are endangered, as well as the sole competitive race in the Northeast.

As I noted in last week’s installment, the conventional wisdom about the South now being solidly Republican is mostly true, but elides the full complexity of politics in Dixie. The two races where the GOP faces potential difficulty — in Kentucky and Georgia — both underscore that complexity.

Last week’s piece noted that Arkansas and Louisiana — two states where Democratic incumbents are vulnerable — are places where Democrats’ historical dominance has ebbed slowly, with some vestiges still remaining.

The same is true of Kentucky. That may come as a surprise to readers who only know of Bluegrass State politics because of Senators Mitch McConnell and Rand Paul, perhaps the most visible duo from any state in the nation.

Kentucky’s Governor, however, is Steve Beshear, a Democrat who has been among the most prominent boosters of ObamaCare anywhere in the country. True, Kentucky Democrats are a different breed — you won’t find a Chuck Schumer or Patrick Leahy getting elected here — but the state is still open to populist, culturally conservative Democrats.

That’s the conviction underlying the Senate campaign of Kentucky Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes, a young, attractive Democrat who’s trying to knock off Senate Minority Leader McConnell with a message that includes support for coal (a vital industry in Kentucky), cutting the budget and loosening regulations — an agenda decisively at odds with that of the Obama Administration.

Earlier in the year, it looked as if Grimes might actually unseat McConnell — raising the prospect that Republicans might be denied a Senate majority through the defeat of their leader in the chamber. Recent polling, however, shows McConnell with a consistent lead just outside the margin of error.

In a weaker year for Republicans, it’s entirely possible that Grimes could have strengthened Democratic ranks in the South. In the current atmosphere, however, such an upset looks unlikely. Whether Mitch McConnell is majority leader or minority leader, he will likely be back in the Senate come the beginning of next year (and, since he will be nearing 79 in six years, this will likely be his last term).

The dynamic at work in Georgia is somewhat different. There, demographic changes are moving in Democrats’ favor — or at least that’s the theory.

While the ranks of non-white voters (who trend far less Republican than whites) has increased in recent years, the state has stayed resolutely in the GOP’s column. Why statewide ideological movement hasn’t occurred yet remains something of a mystery.

With the retirement of Republican incumbent Saxby Chambliss, optimistic Democrats had speculated that they might have a shot at breaking through in the Peach State this year. It didn’t hurt matters any that they nominated moderate Michelle Nunn, daughter of the state’s beloved longtime senator Sam Nunn. After a contentious primary, the GOP nominated businessman David Perdue.

This race is still too close for comfort. Most polls show Perdue ahead, but by a total within the margin of error. If one is relying on fundamentals — the fact that Georgia is still a reliably red state and that midterm turnout will likely favor Republicans — a plausible case can be made for Perdue as a slight favorite. An overreliance on fundamentals, however, can obscure the unique dynamics of individual races. A smart observer might bet on Perdue … but a smarter one would likely keep his money off the table in the first place.

The other Senate races in the South look unlikely to generate much excitement. There was, at one point, a sense that former Republican National Committee Chairman Ed Gillespie might be able to knock off freshman incumbent (and former Governor) Mark Warner in Virginia if a Republican wave reached an absolute zenith.

With Warner’s lead in the polls residing in the double digits, however — and the Old Dominion looking more and more like a blue state every year — that doesn’t appear to be in the offing.

Two Republicans in the region — South Carolina’s Tim Scott and Alabama’s Jeff Sessions — will glide into reelection without trouble. Three others — Tennessee’s Lamar Alexander, Mississippi’s Thad Cochran and South Carolina’s Lindsey Graham — will face no trouble in the general election after having withstood primary challenges from Tea Party candidates.

Finally, a brief word on the Northeast. The region — the most solidly liberal in the country — didn’t justify its own column in this series because its races are almost all foregone conclusions. Four Democrats in the area — Delaware’s Chris Coons, Massachusetts’ Ed Markey, New Jersey’s Cory Booker and Rhode Island’s Jack Reed — are locks for reelection, as is Maine’s Susan Collins (the most left-leaning Republican in the Senate).

The region’s sole competitive race is in New Hampshire, where freshman Democrat Jeanne Shaheen (the Granite State’s former Governor) is facing a challenge from former Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown.

Brown is a charismatic, centrist figure who’s a better political fit for iconoclastic (and often libertarian) New Hampshire than he ever was for deep-blue Massachusetts. He’s not without his liabilities, however, foremost among them the carpetbagger factor — especially in a state where the natives often feel that the influx of Massachusettsans is diluting the local character.

The political terrain is also difficult. While New Hampshire has historically been much more amenable to Republicans than the rest of liberal New England (the state had two Republicans in the Senate from 1980 to 2008), it has trended blue in recent years with Shaheen’s 2008 election, a decade’s worth of Democratic governors and presidential election victories for John Kerry in 2004 and Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012.

Still, New Hampshire did send (moderate) Republican Kelly Ayotte to the Senate in 2010 and the state still retains much of its libertarian character. Can Brown capitalize on that fact?

Most current polling shows him trailing, though one September CNN/Opinion Research Poll had the race as a tie. Brown is a good ideological fit for New Hampshire, though his recent relocation is a liability against someone like Shaheen, with a four-decade history in the state. Look for this to be one of the tightest races on Election Day. If Brown pulls off a victory, it could be a leading indicator of a Republican wave across the county.

This concludes our look at the Senate races. At present, three states seem like sure Republican pickups — Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia. There are no seats as likely to switch sides to Democrats, though Kansas (where an independent candidate may win and end up caucusing with the Democrats) and (much more distantly) Georgia are distinct possibilities.

The most competitive races — the ones to watch on election night — will be in Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, New Hampshire and North Carolina.

While these pieces were written for purposes of analysis rather than prognostication (I claim no special expertise in political prediction), my educated guess is that Republicans will probably end up gaining the Senate majority, though just barely (if forced to choose in every race, I put the final GOP tally at 51 — the slimmest number needed for a majority). Dynamics, of course, can change, although with only about a month left, the possibility of major shifts is growing more distant.

One final note: even if Republicans do gain the majority, they shouldn’t get too comfortable. The 2016 Senate races will bring up 24 seats currently held by Republicans but only 10 held by Democrats. Five of those Republican seats are in states that President Obama won twice and two more are in states he won once. The GOP better hope for a Democratic Party even weaker than the one they face today if they hope to hold on to the upper chamber into the next presidency.