In his long string of action movies, Arnold Schwarzenegger played characters who were invincible.  In his focused business ventures, he has been shrewd and successful.  His unique immigrant script for achieving the American Dream has been spectacular.

Defeating former Governor Grayer than Gray Davis in a recall election in 2003, he stepped into the smoldering ashes that have become California state government and emerged carrying a torch for change.  For a while, his drive, his charisma, his tunnel vision overcame his political naiveté as he attempted to rescue his adopted state from a chaos of special interests, representing more sides than geometry can draw,  that are strangling the state.

Like Governor Reagan before him, Governor Schwarzenegger can dominate the stage.  But where Reagan was the smooth, patient prototype of mainstream conservatism (most of the time), Schwarzenegger is a loud and boisterous libertarian, still feeling his way toward a coherent, consistent political identity.

In his campaign and through his first year in office, Schwarzenegger portrayed himself as an aggressive, pragmatic centrist, the guy who would get things done by force of will, shirtsleeve effort and star power.  He made some early progress, working with the Democrat-controlled legislature to obtain state worker’s comp reform and a bond measure to ease the state budget crisis.

The honeymoon was as brief as a Hollywood marriage.  Buffeted back and forth through California’s maze of hack legislators and politically powerful unions, Schwarzenegger moved further and further to the right.  The balance between future Republican political ambition and rational issues analysis that drove that move is in the eye of the beholder.  

In frustration, the stymied governor would attempt to employ his movie characters’ over-the-top action and simplistic good vs. evil contrasts to affect the rapid and radical change that is necessary.  He would, as frequently threatened, deploy and exploit the initiative process institutionalized in California (not always for good) as the foil to a dysfunctional legislature.

He announced a “year of reform,” supporting four initiatives in a special election he called that cost more than $50 million just to run, plus an estimated $300 million in campaign expenditures, including $7 million Schwarzenegger spent from his own fortune.  One, to cap state spending and gain expansive gubernatorial budget slashing powers, was important from a government responsibility perspective.  The second, which would have put redistricting in the hands of retired judges rather than the legislature, was politically important to end an era of contrived incumbent protection and restore political competition.

The remaining two would have forced unions to obtain written member permission for political use of union dues and marginally tightened standards on teachers.  While both were laudable conservative goals, they turned boiling union hostility toward the governor into all-out war.  The unions spent millions upon millions, significantly slicing away the governor’s popularity and ultimately contributing to the defeat of all four initiatives.  To produce marginal gains, the governor’s overreaching zeal incurred effective backlash and overloaded the system (there were a total of 8 initiatives on the ballot, all defeated).

Temporarily, at least, the governor attempted conservative revolution, perhaps impetuously and certainly prematurely, against overwhelming odds…in California.

In the immediate aftermath, Schwarzenegger was not running from his mistakes.  He was talking accommodation and moving ahead with a host of other plans.  We assume he will continue to run for re-election.

Days before the special election, even former nemesis Gray Davis said, “Anyone writing Arnold’s political obituary is making a mistake.”

We wouldn’t make that mistake. Governor Reagan lost a spending cap initiative and went on.  No longer invincible, and, even more important, no longer believing himself invincible, Governor Schwarzenegger may well grow into the mature and seasoned politician he must become, because, as of now, not one of California’s systemic problems have been mitigated.