[T]hose who are preemptively writing Christie off as an electoral footnote may be making a huge mistake.

Tweet

You know what they say: the bigger they are, the harder they fall. It was only a few short years ago that New Jersey Governor Chris Christie had the high-class problem of shooing away Republicans begging him to enter the 2012 presidential race.

Back then, the calculus was simple: Mitt Romney looked weak, the rest of the field looked amateurish and Christie — who had set bonfires across New Jersey’s deep blue political landscape — looked like a man who was ready to take his star turn on the national stage. Oh, how times have changed.

As he considers a 2016 presidential run, Christie’s stock has fallen dramatically. The scandal over politically motivated lane closures on the George Washington Bridge has left him with several aides under federal indictment and the lowest polling numbers he’s ever seen in New Jersey.

Jeb Bush is making a show out of picking off his donors. And a recent story in the New York Times even suggested that he might have to forego a presidential run altogether (though it does so citing the unquoted assertions of the curiously vague “some in the Republican establishment”).

The problem isn’t just Christie himself; it’s the competition. Unlike in 2012, the Republican presidential field has no deficit of talent. Six major candidates have already declared their ambitions, and another dozen or so are waiting in the wings. As such, Chris Christie is no longer a savior-in-waiting. He’s just another guy in line.

Given the dyspepsia that he’s inspired in conservatives over the years on everything from immigration to gun control to global warming, it’s no surprise that he’s nowhere near the front of that line. A Wall Street Journal/NBC poll released earlier this week asked potential Republican primary voters which candidates they’d find acceptable as their party’s nominee. Christie finished next to last, beating out only the still-relatively-obscure Carly Fiorina.

Reading through that litany, one could be forgiven for thinking it’s probably unwise to book a ticket to Trenton for election night. And that’s still probably the way you’d bet. But those who are preemptively writing Christie off as an electoral footnote may be making a huge mistake. Whatever his liabilities, he still brings a unique combination of assets to a presidential race.

At a speech in New Hampshire (the early state that will be most important to his presidential ambitions) last month, Christie came out swinging, proposing dramatic entitlement reform including means-testing Social Security benefits and raising the retirement age.

It was a bold move, especially at a time when Mike Huckabee — one of Christie’s potential rivals for the Oval Office — is busy demagoguing the issue in the opposite direction. And perhaps it was a bit of a Hail Mary from a campaign desperate to make some waves. But it also underscored one of Christie’s great assets: Apart from Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker, he is the only candidate in the Republican field who can credibly claim a record of success when it comes to taking on uphill political fights against entrenched interests. For a GOP electorate hungry for meaningful reform, that shouldn’t be overlooked.

Another of Christie’s great assets is his media savvy. Like it or not, modern presidential elections are something of a popularity contest, and a candidate who can display some charm and humor — not to mention one who’ll combat the press when it’s called for — have the wind at their backs.

Christie has had a national media presence for years, making fun of his weight problems with David Letterman, slow jamming the news with Jimmy Fallon and showing a flair for self-deprecating humor on Saturday Night Live. And it’s not just his wit that’s made him go viral.

How many other politicians could win over the voters by telling people in the path of a hurricane to “get the hell off the beach” or become a YouTube sensation from town hall meetings? When debate season comes around, Republican voters are going to remember just how good Christie is in front of a camera — and they may find themselves wondering if he’s the man they’d like to see standing opposite Hillary Clinton.

Finally, there’s the issue of where Christie fits in the broader Republican field. As the Ethics and Public Policy Center’s Henry Olsen has pointed out, the party’s presidential nomination traditionally goes to whichever candidate can win over “somewhat conservative” voters. Olsen defines that group as follows:

“They like even-keeled men with substantial governing experience. They like people who express conservative values on the economy or social issues, but who do not espouse radical change. They like people who are optimistic about America; the somewhat conservative voter rejects the “culture warrior” motif that characterized Pat Buchanan’s campaigns. They are conservative in both senses of the word; they prefer the ideals of American conservatism while displaying the cautious disposition of the Burkean.”

That may not be a perfect description of Christie — it’s doubtful he’s ever been described as “even-keeled” before — but it underscores an important point: the formula for winning the Republican nomination is generally to be conservative enough to pacify the base, but not so conservative as to spook the horses.

As it stands now, only four candidates in the Republican field can probably pull off that balancing act: Marco Rubio, Scott Walker, Jeb Bush and Christie. And all of Christie’s rivals have potential liabilities. Rubio has to fight off concerns about his lack of experience and his botched attempt at immigration reform. Bush faces deep skepticism from the conservative base. Walker has thus far struggled in dealing with the press and seems to have flip-flopped on issues like immigration and ethanol subsidies. If any of those candidates falter, it doesn’t automatically benefit Christie, but it certainly gives him an opening.

There’s no doubt that Chris Christie starts the presidential election season from a much weaker position than he or most political observers would’ve imagined possible just a few short years ago. It’s a mistake, however, to write him off before he even sets foot in the arena. There are plenty of political graves filled with the bodies of people who’ve underestimated Chris Christie.